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Key Treasury economic forecasts in the 2023/24 budget

Here are Treasury’s latest forecasts for growth, employment, inflation and wages as laid out in the 2023/24 federal budget released by Treasurer Jim Chalmers.

Treasury forecasts in federal budget Treasury's latest forecasts for growth, employment, inflation and wages are laid out in the budget.
May 10, 2023
By AAP
10 May 2023

KEY ECONOMIC FORECASTS

Economic growth is set to more than halve in 2023/24 before picking up in the following three years, as Australia continues to feel the impact of weak conditions offshore.

But there is better news on inflation, which is expected to finally return to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s preferred two to three per cent target band in 2024/25.

The following forecasts are compared to Labor’s budget papers for the 2022/23 financial year released in October.

GDP (real)

* 2022/23 – 3.25pct (*3.25pct)

* 2023/24 – 1.50pct (*1.50pct)

* 2024/25 – 2.25 (*2.25pct)

* 2025/26 – 2.75 (*2.50pct)

* 2026/27 – 2.75 (n/a)

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 

* 2022/23 – 3.50pct (*3.75pct)

* 2023/24 – 4.25pct (*4.50pct)

* 2024/25 – 4.50pct (*4.50pct)

* 2025/26 – 4.50pct (*4.25pct)

* 2026/27 – 4.25pct (n/a)

EMPLOYMENT GROWTH 

* 2022/23 – 2.50pct (*1.75pct)

* 2023/24 – 1.00pct (*0.75pct)

* 2024/25 – 1.00pct (*1.00pct)

* 2025/26 – 1.75pct (*1.25pct)

* 2026/27 – 1.75pct (n/a)

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX 

* 2022/23 – 6.00pct (*5.75 pct)

* 2023/24 – 3.25pct (*3.50pct)

* 2024/25 – 2.75pct (*2.50pct)

* 2025/26 – 2.50pct (*2.50pct)

* 2026/27 – 2.50pct (n/a)

WAGE PRICE INDEX 

* 2022/23 – 3.75pct (*3.75pct)

* 2023/24 – 4.00pct (*3.75pct)

* 2024/25 – 3.25pct (*3.25pct)

* 2025/26 – 3,25pct (*3.50pct)

* 2026/27 – 3.50pct (n/a)

Source: Treasury

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